Polymarket Multi-Outcome Dutching Arbitrage Calculator
When top outcomes in a multi-choice market sum to < 100¢, allocate capital inversely proportional to each price so any winning candidate pays the exact same guaranteed ROI.
01 · Tool Overview & Quantitative Mechanism
In Polymarket multi-outcome events (such as FOMC total rate cuts or tournament winners), retail mispricing frequently causes the top 2–4 contenders' YES prices to sum to less than 100¢ (e.g., 32¢ + 28¢ + 22¢ = 82¢).
Instead of buying equal dollar amounts, Dutching allocates $B \times (p_i / \sum p_i)$ to each leg $i$. Because each winning share pays exactly $1.00 USDC, your payout is identical ($B / \sum p_i$) regardless of which selected candidate wins (+21.95% guaranteed ROI on an 82¢ combined cost).
02 · Live Interactive Simulator & Demo Workbench
REAL-TIME BROWSER ENGINE · 0 LATENCYKalkulator Dutching Multi-Hasil: Kunci Laba Terjamin yang Sama di 2–4 Kandidat
Ketika 2–4 kandidat teratas di pasar multi-hasil berjumlah kurang dari 100 sen (mis., 32 sen + 28 sen + 22 sen = 82 sen), Dutching mengalokasikan modal Anda secara proporsional terbalik berdasarkan masing-masing harga sehingga PENANGKAPAN PEMENANG APAPUN yang terpilih menghasilkan laba terjamin yang sama persis (+21,95% ROI).
03 · Step-by-Step Usage Guide (4-Stage Walkthrough)
Enter your total planned capital in USDC (e.g., $500 USDC) in the Total Budget field.
Copy the current YES ask prices (in cents) from Polymarket into Outcome A, B, C, and D (set unused slots to 0).
Ensure the Combined Implied Cost indicator shows green (`< 100¢ Arbitrage`). Never Dutch if the sum is ≥ 100¢.
Place passive Limit Orders on Polymarket matching the exact dollar amount and share count shown on each outcome card.
04 · Automated CLI, Python & Docker VPS Deployment Guide
To run this tool 24/7 on your local workstation or an isolated cloud server (such as a low-latency RAKsmart VPS in Tokyo or Frankfurt), copy or download the production deployment script below:
#!/usr/bin/env python3
# P.DAY Tool #01 — Automated Multi-Outcome Dutching Batch Order Bot (py-clob-client)
# pip install py-clob-client python-dotenv
import os
from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient
from py_clob_client.clob_types import OrderArgs, OrderType
from py_clob_client.order_builder.constants import BUY
BUDGET_USDC = 500.0
CANDIDATES = [
{"name": "Outcome A", "token_id": "TOKEN_ID_A", "price": 0.32},
{"name": "Outcome B", "token_id": "TOKEN_ID_B", "price": 0.28},
{"name": "Outcome C", "token_id": "TOKEN_ID_C", "price": 0.22},
]
sum_prob = sum(c["price"] for c in CANDIDATES)
assert sum_prob < 1.0, f"No Dutching arbitrage: sum={sum_prob:.3f} >= 1.00"
client = ClobClient("https://clob.polymarket.com", key=os.environ["POLY_PRIVATE_KEY"], chain_id=137)
client.set_api_creds(client.create_or_derive_api_creds())
for c in CANDIDATES:
alloc_usdc = BUDGET_USDC * (c["price"] / sum_prob)
shares = round(alloc_usdc / c["price"], 2)
print(f"[Dutching] {c['name']} @ {c['price']*100:.1f}c -> Stake ${alloc_usdc:.2f} ({shares} shares)")
order = client.create_order(OrderArgs(token_id=c["token_id"], price=c["price"], size=shares, side=BUY))
client.post_order(order, OrderType.GTC)
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