POLY DAY LIVE
Eleições Presidenciais no Brasil 2026: Quem vencerá a disputa pelo Palácio do Planalto segundo o mercado preditivo? (Sim 54% · 54¢ · 24h $2.18M) Juros do Fed e Copom, ₿ Alvo do Bitcoin, Eleições Presidenciais e Brasileirão / Champions League Radar de Baleias monitorando ordens >$1,000 USDC na rede Polygon · Ordens Limitadas sem slippage Eleições Presidenciais no Brasil 2026: Quem vencerá a disputa pelo Palácio do Planalto segundo o mercado preditivo? (Sim 54% · 54¢ · 24h $2.18M) Juros do Fed e Copom, ₿ Alvo do Bitcoin, Eleições Presidenciais e Brasileirão / Champions League Radar de Baleias monitorando ordens >$1,000 USDC na rede Polygon · Ordens Limitadas sem slippage
P.DAY p.day
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Siga o Dinheiro Real · Radar de Baleias · Kelly
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POLYMARKET CLOB & SDK LABORATORY

Polymarket Official SDK Matrix, CLOB Architecture & Interactive Market-Making Lab

Complete Polymarket quantitative developer suite featuring the 4 official GitHub SDKs (Python/TS/Rust/Agents), Gamma API + EIP-712 CLOB pipeline, interactive Market-Making simulator, and EV/Kelly/Arbitrage calculators.

P.DAY PRO TOOLS DIRECTORY · 10 STANDALONE WORKBENCHES

Standalone Interactive Polymarket Pro Tools & Quant Simulators

Each tool below has its own dedicated page featuring plain-language principles, a live interactive demo, step-by-step usage instructions, and copy-paste deployment code:

View All 10 Pro Tools →
TOOL #02 · Arbitrage & Sizing Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter

Polymarket NegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert Arbitrage Calculator

Built on `Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter`: detect Σ(YES) > 100¢ Split arbitrage and Σ(YES) < 100¢ Merge arbitrage with ready-to-run Polygon Web3 execution code.

Open Interactive Tool & Deployment Guide → /negrisk-split-merge-arbitrage/
TOOL #03 · Arbitrage & Sizing freqtrade/freqtrade

Polymarket × OKX / Binance Perpetuals Tail-Risk Delta-Hedge Calculator

Holding leveraged BTC/ETH perps on OKX or Binance? Calculate the exact Polymarket binary event shares needed to offset 100% of your futures drawdown during FOMC/CPI shocks.

Open Interactive Tool & Deployment Guide → /okx-binance-delta-hedge-calculator/
TOOL #04 · Quant & Market Making Polymarket/poly-market-maker

Official `Polymarket/poly-market-maker` Bands Strategy & Daily Liquidity Rewards Simulator

Visualize Bid/Ask order bands around mid-price, estimate daily USDC Liquidity Rewards + spread capture APY, and auto-generate production `bands.json` configs for `Polymarket/poly-market-maker`.

Open Interactive Tool & Deployment Guide → /poly-market-maker-bands-simulator/
TOOL #05 · Quant & Market Making Polymarket/polymarket-cli

Official 4-Language Polymarket CLOB SDK & Rust CLI Terminal Code Generator

Switch between official Rust CLI (`polymarket-cli`), Python AI Agent (`Polymarket/agents`), Rust SDK (`rs-clob-client`), and TypeScript WebSocket streaming with 1-click copy.

Open Interactive Tool & Deployment Guide → /polymarket-sdk-cli-generator/
GITHUB.COM/POLYMARKET · OFFICIAL OPEN-SOURCE QUANT STACK & INTERACTIVE WORKBENCH github.com/Polymarket (35 Public Repos) →

Official Polymarket GitHub Quant Ecosystem: Autonomous AI Agents, Rust CLI, Market Maker Keeper & Subgraph

Distilled directly from `github.com/Polymarket`'s top open-source repositories — explore the 8 core official repos below, simulate `poly-market-maker` Bands liquidity rewards in real time, and switch between Python, Rust, TypeScript, and CLI execution templates:

Python · LangChain · ChromaDB Autonomous AI Superforecaster Agent

Built-in Superforecaster prompt calibration, news RAG & autonomous CLOB execution

git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/agents.git && cd agents && pip install -e .
Rust · Terminal TUI · CLOB High-Speed Rust Terminal CLI

Browse markets, stream L2 orderbooks, and fire signed CLOB orders directly from terminal

cargo install --git https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli
Python · EIP-712 · L1/L2 Auth Official Python CLOB Execution SDK

L1/L2 API auth, batch zero-fee Maker limit orders, FOK/GTC execution & NegRisk support

pip install py-clob-client python-order-utils web3
Rust · Tokio Async · Alloy Official Rust Sub-Millisecond CLOB SDK

Ultra-low-latency Rust SDK for high-frequency orderbook parsing & sub-ms order signing

cargo add rs-clob-client tokio serde_json
Python · Keeper · Bands/AMM Official Automated Market Maker Keeper

Automated Bands & AMM strategies around mid-price to harvest spread + daily USDC rewards

git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/poly-market-maker.git
TypeScript · WebSocket Real-Time WebSocket Orderbook Delta Client

Sub-50ms streaming WebSocket client for live orderbook deltas, trades & price ticks

npm install @polymarket/real-time-data-client @polymarket/clob-client
GraphQL · Goldsky · Polygon Official On-Chain Positions & PnL Subgraph

Public GraphQL indexing for whale realized PnL, open positions, and CTF split/merge events

git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-subgraph.git
Solidity · Gnosis CTF · UMA NegRisk Multi-Outcome Convert & CTF Adapter

Smart contracts enabling capital-efficient NO-to-YES conversion across mutually exclusive outcomes

git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter.git
WORKBENCH 01 · GITHUB: POLYMARKET/POLY-MARKET-MAKER (BANDS KEEPER SIMULATOR) github.com/Polymarket/poly-market-maker →

Interactive `poly-market-maker` Bands Strategy Simulator, Liquidity Rewards Estimator & `bands.json` Generator

Adjust your market-making capital, mid-price, and half-spread below to visualize how Polymarket's official `poly-market-maker` keeper places passive Bid/Ask bands within the ±2¢ Liquidity Rewards zone, and auto-generate a production `bands.json` configuration:

BID BAND: 47.5¢ – 48.5¢ ($1,000 USDC · 0% Maker Fee) MID: 50.0¢ ASK BAND: 51.5¢ – 52.5¢ ($1,000 USDC · 0% Maker Fee)
Round-Trip Spread Capture
3.0¢ / Share (+6.0%)
Est. Daily Liquidity Reward
+$9.40 USDC / Day
Combined Est. Maker APY
~142.5% APY (0% Fee)
config/bands.json + run_poly_market_maker.sh
WORKBENCH 02 · 4-LANGUAGE OFFICIAL POLYMARKET SDK & RUST CLI SWITCHER

Switch Between Official Rust CLI, Python AI Agent, Rust High-Frequency SDK & TypeScript WebSocket + Gasless Relayer

polymarket_cli_quickstart.sh (Rust CLI Terminal)
QUANT HEADLINE DIRECTORY · GRADED BY READING LEVEL (L1 -> L4) & READING TIME

Headline Quant Guides Directory (With Reading Level, Time & Code Stack)

Start from L1 Beginner Essentials and progress to L4 Institutional Tick Backtesting. Every guide includes reading difficulty, estimated reading time, and production-ready code:

L1 新手 L2 进阶 L3 硬核 L4 极客
HEADLINE PICK #01 L1 Beginner Essential
8 min read 2026-11-01
$1,000 USDC 98.5¢→$1 +12%/mo

Beginner $1,000 Quant Starter Combo Deep-Dive: How Much Can You Earn Monthly Running Polymarket Penny Clipper & LP Bots?

Complete quantitative breakdown for first-time algorithmic traders starting with $1,000 USDC: ranking all 4 Polymarket open-source bot strategies by risk-adjusted edge, modeling 3 realistic monthly profit tiers ($60–$180/mo or 6%–18% monthly ROI) using 5×$200 position splitting, and enforcing the 3 iron survival rules.

portfolio_1000u_penny_lp_combo.py Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
HEADLINE PICK #02 L1 Beginner Comparison
7 min read 2026-11-01
PIONEX AI 0-Code Cloud VS POLY VPS 98.5¢ Sniper

Pionex Cloud AI Bots vs. Self-Hosted Polymarket Bots (CloddsBot / Grok Desk): 6 Key Differences & Dual-Engine Allocation Guide

Both are called 'quant trading bots,' yet Pionex's 16 built-in cloud bots and self-hosted open-source Polymarket bots (`CloddsBot`, `polymarket_lp_tool`, `Grok 4-Step Desk`) operate on completely different market mechanics. Pionex harvests crypto volatility and perpetual funding rates with zero code and massive liquidity capacity, while self-hosted Polymarket bots snipe $1.00 deterministic event settlement discounts and Daily LP Rewards with zero correlation to Bitcoin price swings.

dual_engine_portfolio_allocator.py Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
HEADLINE PICK #03 L1 Zero-Code Starter
6 min read 2026-10-30
92% AI GRID + 8% POLY HEDGE

Pionex AI Quantitative Trading Complete Guide: 16 Free Built-In Grid Bots, Funding-Rate Arbitrage & Polymarket Delta Hedging

Don't want to maintain a Linux VPS? Master Pionex's 16 free built-in AI trading bots (PionexGPT strategy generator, AI Infinity Grid, Spot-Futures Funding Rate Arbitrage, and 0.05% maker/taker fees) and learn how to pair Pionex BTC/ETH grids with Polymarket event tail-hedges.

pionex_grid_polymarket_hedge_calc.py Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
HEADLINE PICK #04 L2 Intermediate Setup
10 min read 2026-11-01
119 SKILLS CLIPPER 98¢ LP REWARDS KALSHI ARB

CloddsBot & Polymarket LP Bot Complete Guide: Deploy 119-Skill AI Arbitrage, Penny Clipper & Daily Liquidity Rewards Bots

Why pay $5,000+ for black-box bots when the best Polymarket trading engines are MIT open-source on GitHub? Full deployment guide to `alsk1992/CloddsBot` (3.1k⭐, 119+ skills including cross-market arbitrage, Penny Clipper expiry decay, and smart-money copy trading) and `lihanyu81/polymarket_lp_tool` (passive LP market-making for daily USDC rewards).

cloddsbot_and_lp_deploy.sh Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
1. SCAN (100 Leads) 2. VERIFY (90% SKIP) 3. EXECUTE 4. EXIT LADDER
#05 L2 Intermediate Desk 12 min read Updated 2026-11-01

Grok × Polymarket 4-Step Multi-Agent Trading Desk: SCAN · VERIFY · EXECUTE · EXIT Pipeline That Filters Out 90% of Bad Trades

The best agent on a quantitative trading desk has never placed a trade — its entire job is to say NO. Learn how to replace fragile single-prompt FOMO bots with an institutional 4-Agent Desk (SCAN -> VERIFY -> EXECUTE -> EXIT) for Polymarket CLOB & crypto markets: run free deterministic code filters first, invoke Grok `x_search` only on survivors, size off live cash + pool depth, and enforce 5 pre-written exit rules (`exits.py`) with full `tasks.csv` skip auditing.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
CLOB 0% FEE MAKER
#06 L2 Intermediate SDK 10 min read Updated 2026-10-28

Guia Quant de Polymarket CLOB: Implante um Bot de Copiar Baleias e Maker com 0% de Taxa usando py-clob-client

Guia completo de engenharia: derive credenciais de Polygon L2 CLOB, consulte IDs de tokens de condições Gamma, inscreva-se em execuções de baleias e coloque ordens limite EIP-712 sem gás com 0% de taxa.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
VPS DOCKER NO-WD KILL-SW
#07 L2 Security & Risk 9 min read Updated 2026-10-27

Guia de Segurança VPS para Quant, Whitelisting de IP de API e Engenharia de Chaves de Desligamento (Kill-Switch) para Perda Máxima

Checklist de segurança de produção para traders quant: seleção de VPS de baixa latência, whitelist de IP de API de exchange, chaves com saque desativado e chaves de desligamento automáticas para 5% de perda diária.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
0.5x KELLY +EV > 4% LLM Calibrated
#08 L3 Pro Quant Dev 12 min read Updated 2026-10-26

Calibração de Probabilidade de LLM de IA + Dimensionamento Half-Kelly: Integração Passo a Passo da API DeepSeek / OpenAI / Ollama para Ordens +EV

Guia completo passo a passo para conectar DeepSeek, OpenAI GPT-4o ou LLMs locais Ollama via Python e interpretar notícias de última hora em razões de verossimilhança bayesianas estruturadas e tamanhos de posição Half-Kelly.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
FreqAI 44.5k★
#09 L3 Pro Backtesting 14 min read Updated 2026-10-25

Tutorial Freqtrade + FreqAI com Docker: Conecte OKX / Binance, Baixe Dados Históricos & Audite Viés de Antecipação

Guia passo a passo para implantar Freqtrade via Docker Compose, baixar dados OHLCV multi-anos da OKX e Binance, executar backtests realistas ajustados por taxas e executar `lookahead-analysis`.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
POLY CLOB YES ARB OKX/BN PERP 1X
#10 L3 Pro Market-Making 15 min read Updated 2026-10-24

Guia de Market Making e Delta-Hedging com Hummingbot: Arbitragem de Probabilidades da Polymarket vs. Futuros Perpétuos da OKX / Binance

Como mesas institucionais combinam controladores de market-making Hummingbot V2 na OKX/Binance com contratos de eventos da Polymarket para construir hedge macro de volatilidade delta-neutro.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
RUST L2 TICK REPLAY
#11 L4 Institutional Tick 18 min read Updated 2026-10-23

Guia de Backtesting de Orderbook L2 no NautilusTrader: Eliminando Ilusões de Slippage e Vieses de Posição na Fila

Como executar backtests de ticks de orderbook L2 de alta fidelidade no NautilusTrader com preenchimentos realistas de posição na fila, modelagem de latência e validação Walk-Forward.

Ler Guia Completo de Implantação & Backtest →
Termos Mais Buscados no Brasil: Polymarket Eleições, Presidente & PIX

Poly Day (p.day) — Polymarket no Brasil: Eleições Brasil 2026, Pesquisa Presidencial, Como Funciona e Depósito via PIX

Pesquisa presidencial na Polymarket Brasil, como funciona, Copa do Mundo, Selic e depósito USDC via PIX

As buscas por «Polymarket eleições Brasil», «Polymarket presidente Brasil» e «Polymarket pesquisa presidencial» dispararam porque o mercado de previsões em blockchain antecipa tendências eleitorais e cortes da taxa Selic antes das pesquisas tradicionais. Na Polymarket Brasil, cada cota de 'Sim' ou 'Não' negociada entre 1¢ e 99¢ reflete milhões de dólares em liquidez real no livro de ofertas CLOB da rede Polygon.

Se você quer saber «Polymarket como funciona» para operar mercados sobre o Presidente do Brasil, Copa do Mundo, Libertadores, Neymar ou Bitcoin, a Poly Day Brasil (p.day/pt/) reúne cotações ao vivo a cada 60 segundos, radar de baleias on-chain e o passo a passo para converter Reais (BRL) via PIX em USDC (rede Polygon) pela Binance Brasil ou Mercado Bitcoin.

P.DAY
Poly Day · Previsão Hoje (p.day)
★ Siga o Dinheiro Real · Radar de Baleias · Kelly