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01 Overview 02 Live Demo 03 Usage 04 Deployment

TOOL #02 · NEGRISK CTF SPLIT / MERGE ARBITRAGE GitHub: Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter ↗

Polymarket NegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert Arbitrage Calculator

Built on `Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter`: detect Σ(YES) > 100¢ Split arbitrage and Σ(YES) < 100¢ Merge arbitrage with ready-to-run Polygon Web3 execution code.

Jump to Live Interactive Demo ↓ Open Polymarket CLOB → OKX USDC (<$0.10) → Binance USDC → Coinbase USDC ($0 Fee) →

01 · Tool Overview & Quantitative Mechanism

Under Polymarket's Gnosis CTF + `NegRiskAdapter` smart contracts, 1 complete set of mutually exclusive YES outcomes is mathematically collateralized by exactly **$1.00 USDC** on the Polygon blockchain.

This enables two atomic arbitrages: (1) **Split Arbitrage ($\sum P > 100\text{¢}$)**: Mint a full set of YES tokens for $1.00 USDC via `splitPosition()` and sell all legs on the CLOB for 105¢ (+5.0% instant profit). (2) **Merge Arbitrage ($\sum P < 100\text{¢}$)**: Buy all YES legs on the CLOB for 94¢ and call `mergePositions()` to immediately redeem $1.00 USDC (+6.38% risk-free yield without waiting for market resolution).

02 · Live Interactive Simulator & Demo Workbench

REAL-TIME BROWSER ENGINE · 0 LATENCY

PRO TOOL D · GITHUB: POLYMARKET/NEG-RISK-CTF-ADAPTER & PY-MERGE-SPLIT-POSITIONS github.com/Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter →

NegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert On-Chain Arbitrage Workbench

Powered by Polymarket's official `neg-risk-ctf-adapter` and `py-merge-split-positions` repos: In mutually exclusive multi-outcome markets, if Σ(YES) > 100¢ (e.g., 105¢), call `splitPosition` to mint a complete outcome set for $1.00 USDC and sell all legs on the CLOB for $1.05 (+5.0% instant arbitrage). If Σ(YES) < 100¢ (e.g., 94¢), buy all YES legs and call `mergePositions` to redeem $1.00 USDC (+6.38% risk-free yield).

Arb Capital ($ USDC)

Outcome #1 YES (¢)

Outcome #2 YES (¢)

All Other YES Sum (¢)

Total Implied Sum (ΣP)

105.0¢ (≠ 100¢)

Triggered CTF Contract Action

splitPosition() → Sell All YES

Instant Risk-Free Net Profit

+$50.00 USDC (+5.00%)

negrisk_ctf_split_merge_arb.py (Polymarket/py-merge-split-positions)

03 · Step-by-Step Usage Guide (4-Stage Walkthrough)

Step 1: Select a Preset or Input All Outcome YES Prices

Click Preset 1 (105¢ Split Arb) or Preset 2 (94¢ Merge Arb), or enter live outcome prices from any NegRisk event.

Step 2: Check the Triggered CTF Contract Action

The workbench automatically determines whether to call `splitPosition()` or `mergePositions()` and computes net USDC profit.

Step 3: Copy the Auto-Generated Polygon Web3 Script

Copy or download `negrisk_ctf_split_merge_arb.py` pre-populated with Polygon Mainnet's `NegRiskAdapter` address.

Step 4: Execute Atomic Split/Merge on Your VPS

Run the script alongside `Polymarket/py-merge-split-positions` to execute atomic on-chain minting/redemption.

PRODUCTION DEPLOYMENT · CLI / PYTHON / DOCKER / VPS

04 · Automated CLI, Python & Docker VPS Deployment Guide

To run this tool 24/7 on your local workstation or an isolated cloud server (such as a low-latency RAKsmart VPS in Tokyo or Frankfurt), copy or download the production deployment script below:

deploy_negrisk_arb.sh

#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Official Polymarket NegRisk & Split/Merge Deployment Pipeline
git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/py-merge-split-positions.git
cd py-merge-split-positions
python3 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install web3 py-clob-client python-dotenv

export POLYGON_RPC_URL="https://polygon-rpc.com"
export NEG_RISK_ADAPTER="0xd91E80cF2E7be2e162c6513ceD06f1dD0dA35296"
export POLY_PRIVATE_KEY="0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY"

python3 negrisk_ctf_split_merge_arb.py

Get RAKsmart Low-Latency Quant VPS → Get Surfshark CleanWeb Anti-Phishing & Static IP Shield →

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عمليات البحث الأكثر رواجاً: شرح بولي ماركت (Polymarket) وأسواق التوقعات

Poly Day (p.day) — ما هو بولي ماركت (Polymarket)؟ شرح سوق التوقعات، تطبيق Polymarket App والإمارات (UAE)

دليل شامل حول ما هو بولي ماركت، تطبيق Polymarket App، احتمالات البيتكوين والنفط وإيداع USDC عبر Polygon

#ما هو بولي ماركت (Polymarket)؟#شرح Polymarket بالعربي خطوة بخطوة #احتمالات بولي ماركت المباشرة #تطبيق Polymarket App للجوال #توقعات الشرق الأوسط وأسعار النفط #توقعات البيتكوين والفيدرالي الأمريكي #إيداع USDC على شبكة Polygon بدون KYC #رادار محافظ الحيتان #حاسبة معيار كيلي (Half-Kelly)#قواعد أوراكل UMA

يتزايد بحث المتداولين في الخليج والشرق الأوسط عن «بولي ماركت» و«شرح Polymarket» و«تطبيق Polymarket app» للاستفادة من أكبر بورصة توقعات لامركزية في العالم على شبكة Polygon. يتيح لك بولي ماركت تداول أسهم الاحتمالات («نعم» أو «لا») بسعر يتراوح بين 1 سنت و99 سنتاً بعملة USDC حول قرارات الفيدرالي، أسعار النفط والذهب، البيتكوين، ودوري أبطال أوروبا.

يوفر لك موقع Poly Day بالعربية (p.day/ar/) متابعة فورية لسيولة دفتر أوامر CLOB، ورصد تحركات محافظ الحيتان الكبرى، بالإضافة إلى دليل تحويل الدرهم الإماراتي أو الريال السعودي عبر Binance P2P وOKX وRain إلى عملة USDC على شبكة Polygon برسوم صفرية.