Polymarket NegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert Arbitrage Calculator
Built on `Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter`: detect Σ(YES) > 100¢ Split arbitrage and Σ(YES) < 100¢ Merge arbitrage with ready-to-run Polygon Web3 execution code.
01 · Tool Overview & Quantitative Mechanism
Under Polymarket's Gnosis CTF + `NegRiskAdapter` smart contracts, 1 complete set of mutually exclusive YES outcomes is mathematically collateralized by exactly **$1.00 USDC** on the Polygon blockchain.
This enables two atomic arbitrages: (1) **Split Arbitrage ($\sum P > 100\text{¢}$)**: Mint a full set of YES tokens for $1.00 USDC via `splitPosition()` and sell all legs on the CLOB for 105¢ (+5.0% instant profit). (2) **Merge Arbitrage ($\sum P < 100\text{¢}$)**: Buy all YES legs on the CLOB for 94¢ and call `mergePositions()` to immediately redeem $1.00 USDC (+6.38% risk-free yield without waiting for market resolution).
02 · Live Interactive Simulator & Demo Workbench
REAL-TIME BROWSER ENGINE · 0 LATENCYNegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert On-Chain Arbitrage Workbench
Powered by Polymarket's official `neg-risk-ctf-adapter` and `py-merge-split-positions` repos: In mutually exclusive multi-outcome markets, if Σ(YES) > 100¢ (e.g., 105¢), call `splitPosition` to mint a complete outcome set for $1.00 USDC and sell all legs on the CLOB for $1.05 (+5.0% instant arbitrage). If Σ(YES) < 100¢ (e.g., 94¢), buy all YES legs and call `mergePositions` to redeem $1.00 USDC (+6.38% risk-free yield).
03 · Step-by-Step Usage Guide (4-Stage Walkthrough)
Click Preset 1 (105¢ Split Arb) or Preset 2 (94¢ Merge Arb), or enter live outcome prices from any NegRisk event.
The workbench automatically determines whether to call `splitPosition()` or `mergePositions()` and computes net USDC profit.
Copy or download `negrisk_ctf_split_merge_arb.py` pre-populated with Polygon Mainnet's `NegRiskAdapter` address.
Run the script alongside `Polymarket/py-merge-split-positions` to execute atomic on-chain minting/redemption.
04 · Automated CLI, Python & Docker VPS Deployment Guide
To run this tool 24/7 on your local workstation or an isolated cloud server (such as a low-latency RAKsmart VPS in Tokyo or Frankfurt), copy or download the production deployment script below:
#!/usr/bin/env bash
# Official Polymarket NegRisk & Split/Merge Deployment Pipeline
git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/py-merge-split-positions.git
cd py-merge-split-positions
python3 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install web3 py-clob-client python-dotenv
export POLYGON_RPC_URL="https://polygon-rpc.com"
export NEG_RISK_ADAPTER="0xd91E80cF2E7be2e162c6513ceD06f1dD0dA35296"
export POLY_PRIVATE_KEY="0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY"
python3 negrisk_ctf_split_merge_arb.py
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