Calcolatore Professionale di Dimensionamento Half-Kelly
Gestione scientifica del rischio per massimizzare il valore atteso ed evitare il drawdown
Polymarket Share Price → Payout Multiplier
| Price (¢) | Multiplier | $250 Payout | Net ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (10%) | 10.00x | $2,500 | +900% |
| 20¢ (20%) | 5.00x | $1,250 | +400% |
| 35¢ (35%) | 2.86x | $714.29 | +186% |
| 50¢ (50%) | 2.00x | $500.00 | +100% |
| 75¢ (75%) | 1.33x | $333.33 | +33% |
| 90¢ (90%) | 1.11x | $277.78 | +11% |
Formula: f* = (P_true - P_market) / (1 - P_market). Each winning Yes or No share settles at exactly $1.00 USDC on Polygon via UMA Optimistic Oracle.
10 Standalone Polymarket Pro Tools (Individual Workbenches, Live Demos & Deployment Guides)
In addition to the Shares & Half-Kelly simulator above, click any tool below to open its dedicated standalone workbench featuring: 01 Core Mechanism, 02 Live Interactive Demo, 03 Step-by-Step Usage Guide, and 04 Copy-Paste CLI/VPS Deployment Code.
Polymarket Multi-Outcome Dutching Arbitrage Calculator
When top outcomes in a multi-choice market sum to < 100¢, allocate capital inversely proportional to each price so any winning candidate pays the exact same guaranteed ROI.
Polymarket NegRisk Multi-Outcome Split / Merge / Convert Arbitrage Calculator
Built on `Polymarket/neg-risk-ctf-adapter`: detect Σ(YES) > 100¢ Split arbitrage and Σ(YES) < 100¢ Merge arbitrage with ready-to-run Polygon Web3 execution code.
Polymarket × OKX / Binance Perpetuals Tail-Risk Delta-Hedge Calculator
Holding leveraged BTC/ETH perps on OKX or Binance? Calculate the exact Polymarket binary event shares needed to offset 100% of your futures drawdown during FOMC/CPI shocks.
Official `Polymarket/poly-market-maker` Bands Strategy & Daily Liquidity Rewards Simulator
Visualize Bid/Ask order bands around mid-price, estimate daily USDC Liquidity Rewards + spread capture APY, and auto-generate production `bands.json` configs for `Polymarket/poly-market-maker`.
Official 4-Language Polymarket CLOB SDK & Rust CLI Terminal Code Generator
Switch between official Rust CLI (`polymarket-cli`), Python AI Agent (`Polymarket/agents`), Rust SDK (`rs-clob-client`), and TypeScript WebSocket streaming with 1-click copy.
Polygon Smart-Money Whale X-Ray Inspector & 24/7 Copy-Trading Bot Generator
Select a high-win-rate Polygon whale or paste any 0x address to inspect their strategy profile and generate a 24/7 Python whale shadow-tracking & copy-signal script.
Official `Polymarket/polymarket-subgraph` On-Chain Whale Positions & PnL GraphQL Explorer
Query Polymarket's official Goldsky-hosted Subgraph (`Polymarket/polymarket-subgraph`) with zero API keys to inspect whale `avgPrice`, `realizedPnl`, and institutional CTF split/merge events.
Polymarket 24/7 Telegram Odds-Alert & Dip-Sniper Bot Code Generator
Enter your target market slug, dip-buy trigger (e.g., ≤30¢), take-profit trigger (e.g., ≥82¢), and Telegram Bot Token to generate a 24/7 mobile alert script.
Interactive UMA Optimistic Oracle Resolution Rules Trap & Timezone Auditor
Paste any market's English resolution rules before trading to automatically flag Eastern Time (ET) vs. UTC rollover risks, strict single-source clauses, and rumor exclusions.
Interactive Polygon USDC On-Ramp Fee & Net-Shares Comparator
Compare depositing native Polygon USDC via OKX / Binance (~$0.10 fee) vs. third-party credit card processors (MoonPay ~3.8% fee) across any deposit size.
Watchlist + Live Binance Candlestick Chart (`15M / 1H / 4H / 1D`) + Polymarket CLOB Order Book
Analyze live Binance candlesticks with TradingView LightweightCharts while simultaneously inspecting Polymarket's YES/NO CLOB orderbook depth on the right.
When Binance 15m candles break out before Polymarket CLOB reprices, an 8–25s latency arbitrage window opens.
BTC/USD
$98,230.50 +2.45% BTC > $120K · YES 44¢48h High-APR Bond Scanner · Wall St Divergence Radar · Maker Rewards Pool
Capture structural alpha without gambling on coin-flips: scan near-expiry 95¢–98.5¢ high-APR bond markets, spot pricing gaps against CME FedWatch & Deribit options, and farm daily USDC Maker liquidity rewards.
Module 01: 48–72h Ending-Soon High-APR 'Bond' Scanner (94¢–98.5¢ Tail Yield)
How it works: When a market is 24–72 hours from resolution with >99% outcome certainty, impatient whales often sell at 95¢–98.2¢ to free up capital. Buying and holding to $1.00 maturity yields +1.8% to +5.2% in 48 hours (>300% annualized APR).
No Emergency Intra-Meeting Fed Rate Cut This Week (36h left)
649% APRBitcoin Closes Above $55,000 This Weekend (42h left)
690% APREthereum Weekly Average Gas Stays Below 150 Gwei (54h left)
641% APRSpaceX Launch Window Executes Within Current Quarter (68h left)
606% APR| Ending-Soon Market (Time Left) | High-Certainty Side & Ask | Maturity Net Yield | Annualized APR | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Emergency Intra-Meeting Fed Rate Cut This Week (36h left) | BUY NO @ 97.4¢ | +2.67% (36h) | 649% APR | Lock Yield → |
| Bitcoin Closes Above $55,000 This Weekend (42h left) | BUY YES @ 96.8¢ | +3.31% (42h) | 690% APR | Lock Yield → |
| Ethereum Weekly Average Gas Stays Below 150 Gwei (54h left) | BUY YES @ 96.2¢ | +3.95% (54h) | 641% APR | Lock Yield → |
| SpaceX Launch Window Executes Within Current Quarter (68h left) | BUY YES @ 95.5¢ | +4.71% (68h) | 606% APR | Lock Yield → |
Module 02: Polymarket vs. Wall Street Consensus (CME FedWatch & Options Implied Prob) Divergence Radar
When institutional futures on CME FedWatch or Deribit/OKX options price an event ≥ 7% away from Polymarket retail orderbooks, a structural cross-market +EV edge opens up:
Fed Cuts 25bps at Next FOMC Meeting
Institutional rate swaps price higher cut odds; BUY YES with 8.2% Half-Kelly allocation
Bitcoin Touches $120,000 Before Year-End
Options skew prices 53.8% touch probability; BUY YES on Polymarket & delta-hedge on OKX
US Core CPI YoY Prints Below 2.4%
Cleveland Fed inflation Nowcast diverges by +9.2% from retail orderbook pricing
Module 03: Daily USDC Maker Liquidity Rewards High-Yield Orderbooks
Pro secret: Passive limit orders within ±2¢ of mid-price earn daily USDC Liquidity Rewards directly from Polymarket even if your orders never get filled! Pair with our CLOB / Hummingbot scripts to farm rewards 24/7.
How to Use This Calculator: 4 Steps to Compute +EV, Multipliers & Optimal Position Size
Profitable Polymarket trading isn't about guessing winners—it's about finding contracts where your true probability exceeds the market's cent price, then sizing with Half-Kelly discipline. Here is how every input works:
01 · Enter Your Capital Allocation ($ USDC)
Type the USDC amount you plan to allocate to this trade or active sub-bankroll (e.g., $250 USDC). Every Polymarket contract is priced and settled in Polygon USDC ($1.00 = 1 USDC).
02 · Slide the 'Current Market Price (1¢–99¢)'
Set this to the live 'Yes' or 'No' share price on Polymarket. Rule #1: 1 cent = 1% implied market probability, and every winning share settles at exactly $1.00 USDC. A 35¢ share implies a 35% probability and a 2.86x gross payout (100 ÷ 35).
03 · Slide 'Your Estimated True Win Probability (%)'
Based on P.DAY analyst research and our Quant Model Calibration signal, set what you believe the true probability is. You only have a Positive Expected Value (+EV) edge when True Probability > Market Price %!
04 · Read Your 'Half-Kelly Recommended Allocation'
The binary Kelly formula f* = (P_true - P_market) / (1 - P_market) computes the maximum compounding fraction. Professional desks divide Full Kelly by 2 ('Half-Kelly') to cut volatility by 50% while retaining 75% of long-term growth.
Real-World Math: Emotional Retail Gambler vs. Half-Kelly Quant Trader ($1,000 Bankroll)
| Dimension | ✕ Emotional Retail Trader (All-In Market Order) | ✓ P.DAY Half-Kelly Trader (Staged Limit Orders) |
|---|---|---|
| Market Setup | 'Yes' trades at 35¢ (35% implied), research estimates 55% true odds | Same contract: 35¢ price (2.86x multiplier), 55% true probability (+20% edge) |
| Position Sizing | Ignores math, bets 100% of bankroll ($1,000) on a gut feeling | Full Kelly = (0.55-0.35)/(1-0.35) = 30.8% → Half-Kelly caps size at 15.4% ($154) |
| Order Execution | Market-buys immediately, suffering slippage up to 37.5¢ average fill | Rests 0%-fee CLOB Limit Orders at 34¢ and 32¢ with zero slippage |
| Early Cash-Out | Holds blindly to expiry even when price rallies to 65¢ mid-week | Sells 50% of shares on the CLOB at 65¢, locking in +85.7% realized profit early |
| Black-Swan Loss Impact | A single upset wipes out 100% of the $1,000 account | Account draws down only 15.4% on an upset, compounding steadily over 20+ trades |
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Poly Day (p.day) — Complete Guide to Prediction Markets, Polymarket Invite Code, Kalshi vs Polymarket & Live CLOB Odds
High-volume Polymarket queries, live CLOB odds, referral code, and regulatory guides
Poly Day (p.day) is the flagship 15-language intelligence terminal for the global prediction market ecosystem. As searches for «prediction market», «what is prediction market», «polymarket gov shutdown», «polymarket president», «polymarket iran», and «clarity act polymarket» surge worldwide, Polymarket's Polygon Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) prices real-time probabilities between 1¢ and 99¢ USDC with deeper liquidity and faster price discovery than traditional polls.
Whether you are comparing «Kalshi vs Polymarket», researching «polymarket stocks» (note: Polymarket is private; traders buy event outcome shares rather than equity), querying the «polymarket api», or looking for an official «polymarket invite code» / «polymarket referral code», Poly Day (p.day) delivers 60-second orderbook telemetry, smart-money whale alerts (>75% win rate), and Half-Kelly position sizing.